| By Bill Bonner Tuesday, August 11, 2020 – Week 22 of the Quarantine SAN MARTIN, ARGENTINA – Here's a news story from Fox Business last week: "Skyrocketing gun sales trigger US ammo shortage" "Wholesale and distributor inventories are 'leanest we've ever seen'" Who are folks planning to shoot? The answers come back: Democrats… Republicans… Trump… rioters… looters… greedy racists… rich white guys… poor black guys… Take your pick. But, like gravity, these things have always been with us. Still, sometimes planes crash. And sometimes, they don't. Today, we wonder why the nation seems to be in a tailspin right now. Good Times Ahead First, a look at where things stand… 31 million Americans are still unemployed… …a third of renters say they'll miss their August rent payment… …manufacturing, in terms of the number of hours worked in the sector, is back to levels last seen in the year we were born – 1948… …and worldwide, an estimated 60 million people have been pushed into poverty by the coronavirus lockdowns; many will die early as a result. But the stock market seems to be saying that all is well… The S&P 500 has just staged the fastest recovery on record. Surely, investors are looking ahead to good times. What to make of it all? Wall Street and Main Street seem to be on different planes. One is flying high. The other is crashing. How come? The FINAL Wave of 5G Millionaires Starts Any Day Now. More Damage As you'll recall, we've seen that the feds are "transferring" more money than previous generations even dreamed of. On Saturday, the president – on his own say-so – added about $219 billion to the total. That news alone sent the S&P 500 to near its previous all-time high. And this morning's news tells us that The Donald is considering more damage to the nation's finances – a capital gains tax cut. (Another nice boost for Wall Street!) Meanwhile, negotiations between Democrats and Republicans go on… and should result in another huge dose of "transferred" money this week or next, bringing the total closer to the $12 trillion we estimated a few days ago. Of course, the feds don't have $12 trillion. They will generate about $3.6 trillion via taxation. The rest is just pure counterfeiting – printing up money to pay for things you can't afford honestly. And since this counterfeit money is legal tender… it is indistinguishable from real money. So it can be used just like real money. That is how counterfeiting works. | Recommended Link | | How a Little-known "August Announcement" – Which is Guaranteed to Happen BY LAW – Could Make You Rich No later than August 14, a well-known billionaire is going to make a major announcement. He's going to reveal which stocks he's been quietly investing in. And when he does, three things are set to happen… Everybody will start talking about the stocks Insiders will rush to buy as many shares as possible And just like that, the share prices will likely go through the roof But what if I told you that you could get in on this opportunity – BEFORE the announcement – and position yourself for a huge windfall too? Sound too good to be true? | | | -- | The Real Story The news media is focused on the "negotiations" and the partisan "bickering" behind them. The public is still aghast at the coronavirus. It is a killer, of course, but not a very good one. Even among the oldest and most vulnerable part of the population, it is only responsible for one out of 20 deaths. The bigger story goes unnoticed – Americans are gunning up… and the U.S. is headed for inflation, depression, and maybe even civil war. Because the "transfers" are a rip-off. And they not only hurt the Main Street economy, they light a fire under a pot of jealousies, frustrations, and unfairness that has been filling up for half a century. Sooner or later, it is almost sure to boil over into violence. Sowing the Seed So, let's quickly look back at the last 49 years to see if we can better understand how we got where we are… The seed – a flexible currency, with no connection to the real world of limited resources, especially time, work, skills, knowledge, sweat, risk, and all the other things you need to create real wealth – was brought forth in August 1971. Economist Milton Friedman dug the hole. Then, with the whole world watching, Richard Nixon stuck it in the ground. It took root almost immediately. Gradually, like an Alabama forest attacked by kudzu, the whole ecosystem changed. The new weed took over… monopolizing credit, crowding out savings, shifting the focus from making things on Main Street to making money (from cheap, under-priced credit) on Wall Street. More and more real output (manufacturing) moved overseas. And debt piled up at home… It was easier to buy from the foreigners than to sell to them. In the late 1980s, Alan Greenspan began giving Wall Street favorable treatment – providing a MiracleGro of easy cash and credit to the richest part of the economy. Since then, the top 1% of the U.S. population has gotten 16 times more wealth than the whole bottom 90%. In 1999, largely financed by fake credit, the U.S. was on top of the world… with giant bubbles in U.S. assets, U.S. prestige, and U.S. power… including a balanced budget in Washington… This Revolutionary Tech IS the #1 Investment of the Century. Falling Apart In 2000, it all began to fall apart… Stocks crashed… GDP growth rates fell to roughly half of those in the 20th century… The Federal Reserve cut rates to support the stock market, creating another bubble – this time, in mortgage finance/real estate – in 2007… In 2008/2009, the Obama administration presided over the biggest Wall Street bailout ever… In 2016, Americans expressly recognized that the country was in decline; the new president vowed to make it great "again." Still to Come… But three years later, after 10 years of "recovery," the U.S. government was still running some of the biggest deficits ever… And then, in the panic over the coronavirus, the Trump Team made two of the most knuckleheaded mistakes in history. First, it shut down the economy… And second, it pretended to replace real goods and services – real wealth – with fake money from the Fed's printing press. We'll take a guess about what happens next… tomorrow. Regards, Bill
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MAILBAG Yesterday, dear reader Tiim E. suggested the only thing saving America's dollar is printing more currency. Another dear reader disagrees… You would have to be in Fantasyland to believe fiat money will ever solve anything long term. Trump is not helping our country with the way he has handled the economy or the virus. You can blame Trump for his lack of action regarding our economy and our current state of affairs. Hopefully, he will be a one-term president… – Rosemary L. Meanwhile, one dear reader suggests Bill misunderstood Trump's "tax holiday"… and says he will win the political game, no matter if he is elected to a second term or not… People most definitely WILL have to pay for their own Social Security. Trump deferred the tax until the end of the year. He did not eliminate it, nor are the feds paying the tax for workers. Workers are no longer going to have federal withholding, Social Security, and Medicare withheld from their paychecks until the end of the year. They will feel richer with a few hundred extra bucks in their pocket every payday. But next April 15, when they file their taxes, they are going to owe the full amount, and are going to have to cough up money to cover the shortfall. If Trump loses the election, people are going to freak out with having to pay their full tax bill on April 15. It's going to have bad impacts on the economy, making Biden look bad. But if Trump wins the election, he can try to get the tax forgiven… but even if he can't, he's a lame duck in his second term. From a political standpoint, the tax deferment is a brilliant move for Trump. Either way, he wins. He looks good now. Most idiots will probably spend the extra money, (instead of saving it) which will goose the economy right now. If he wins the election, he can try to clean up the mess. But even if he can't clean up the mess, he was still re-elected. And if he loses the election, Biden and the Democrats are going to get a black eye if the economy crashes due to people having to cut spending so they can pay their tax bill on April 15. – Brian F. And yet another dear reader says the country's currency system is psychological… One of these days, somebody, somewhere is going to say this fiat currency is completely worthless and will decide to put his money into anything but cash – or cash equivalents. This will spread and the fad of the day will be anything but cash. This will cause a collapse in world currency prices as people scramble to put their money into anything but fiat currencies. This will lead to accelerating inflation and much higher interest rates. If the Dems get control of the White House and Congress, the collapse will most likely start right after the election. If Trump wins, it will probably take a year or two before the collapse starts. Venezuela here we come! – Paul C. Will Trump be a one-term president? Would a Democratic win in November jumpstart economic collapse, as Paul believes? Write us at feedback@rogueeconomics.com. IN CASE YOU MISSED IT… The Biggest Story of the 2020s… Nothing to do with the Trump-Biden election… But the outcome could decide the fate of American investors for the next decade. Click for full details. 
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